Posted on 04-04-2020.
A lot is going on with the economy. The monetary authorities around the world leverage their powers to intervene by printing money and introducing unconditional payments for citizens, businesses change their model or struggle to keep afloat. In this piece, trader and analyst Tone Vays shares his perspective on the state of the traditional and Bitcoin markets, the premise of a socialist future, and the push for CBDC. Max Bit: After the crash, there’s a lot of uncertainty as to the future of the global economy. What’s going on with the markets? Tone Vays: I didn’t expect the markets to go up after the weekend. Still, I don’t believe there will be crises like those we’ve seen in previous weeks. The market may drop a bit more, but the worst is in the past. I’ve sold my stocks before the weekend, but I’m looking for opportunities to buy Bitcoin. For now, people are trying to figure out what to expect from the market. I think it will be going down for a little while, but in April and May, the stock market will likely be bullish. Max: What about the money infusions in multiple countries? Aren’t the Fed and other authorities worldwide digging the grave for us all? Tone: I don’t think so. Many people will lose their jobs many people will lose their money. The world economy will lose more money than the authorities will print. A big depression is unlikely to happen. The business will return, albeit not necessarily the same ones. In a year or two, everything will get back to normal, but until then there will be deflation. I think that it may be necessary to print more money right now. Of course, in the future, this will be bad for those who have money and good for those who have Bitcoin. Max: Because of the virus, factories are working to fulfill government orders for important goods and it all starts to resemble the planned economy akin to that of the Soviet Union and China. Should we expect the fall of capitalism? Tone: This has a lot to do with who is to be the president or prime minister. If Trump loses the reelection to somebody like Bernie Sanders or Hillary Clinton there we may see more socialism. But if he stays, this won’t be a problem. Max: Will CBDCs become significantly more prominent after the crisis or we’re still years off? Tone: For a few years, I’ve been saying the same thing over and over again: central bank digital money was here before Bitcoin and it will be there after Bitcoin. About 98% of the U.S. dollar, if not more, is already this government digital currency, the same goes for the euro and everything else. Everything is digital. It doesn’t matter how you call it, Bitcoin will still give you what the government will not. Bitcoin is non-confiscatable, nobody can freeze it. It is censorship-resistant. The government will not give you such a currency. There is also a fixed amount of 21 million BTC. Multiply this number by a hundred million and you get the total number of satoshis. If one satoshi gets more expensive than a dollar or a few, we’ll have to use Lightning Network to split each satoshi into another hundred million units. Whatever governments call their digital currencies, it’s all about getting rid of paper money. First, without paper money, nobody will run over to the bank and pull out their cash. There will be no ATMs. Without paper money, banks can set whichever interest rates they want. They can manipulate the economy because people can’t get out of the banking system and its negative interest rates without paper money. If there is no paper money, you can’t purchase things without notifying the authorities. Finally, governments want to get rid of paper money because of taxes. They are afraid of losing tax money because of paper cash. Still, Bitcoin will only benefit from the government efforts to drop paper money. Watch the full Russian-language interview on the ForkLog YouTube channel. Follow us on Twitter and Facebook and join our Telegram channel to know what’s up with crypto and why it’s important.