Bitcoin Price: 2 Key Indicators Suggest Accumulation Underway Below $10K

Bitcoin Price: 2 Key Indicators Suggest Accumulation Underway Below $10K

On-chain data and Bitcoin’s on-balance volume indicator (OBV) suggest retail and institutional investors are quietly accumulating more BTC.

Bitcoin (BTC) finished a volatile week at $8,282 which is a 5% increase for the week but still 6% away from the highs of over $8,800. This morning, Bitcoin took another knock at opening, trading slightly lower alongside the rest of the cryptocurrency market and traditional markets.

XRP has thus far bucked the trend and is up 3% at the time of writing. With Bitcoin’s move out of the consolidation being hammered back last week, we will take a look at what may have been behind the rejection and what is likely to happen this week.

Daily crypto market data. Source: Coin360

Daily crypto market data. Source: Coin360

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView​​​​​​​

BTC USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price was strongly supported by the 100 week moving average (WMA) which bounced the price back up towards $9,000 last week, before falling short of both the $9k handle and the major resistance at $9,500. There are now clearly defined battle lines drawn, with Bitcoin sitting closer to the lows of the weekly support rather than towards the highs.

On a macro level, while continuing to trade below the 20 WMA, Bitcoin favours the bears medium term with the 100 WMA being the last line of defence. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows momentum continues to favour the downside although the histogram is showing signs of flattening out. 

The present trading range around $8,000 is of relatively high volume interest as shown by the high Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) node down the right hand side of the chart which shows the amount of volume traded at a given price.

If this level fails to hold, the next stop is likely to be the mid to low $6,000s with the 200 WMA being the last line of defense in the mid $4,000s.

Generally, the lower time frames are more useful in helping to identify what is most likely to occur over the next few weeks. 

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

A closer look at the daily chart reveals that Bitcoin is clearly being held back by the 200 DMA having broken out of a fairly well established trading range between $7,800 and $8,500. Bitcoin also briefly tested and broke through the 200 DMA before being smacked back down below $8,500.

The looming concern for bulls is the so called death cross of the 50 and 200 DMA which is on track to occur before the end of the month. The MACD is trending upwards but the histogram shows that the trend is not particularly strong, which implies that there is not much momentum to break the cluster of resistance overhead.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

 BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

The 4 hour Bitcoin chart clearly shows the rejection at the 200 DMA off the back of a strong bounce back into the range of $8150 – $8450 where the majority of buying and selling interest exists.

The bulls will need to maintain the upper 50% of the range and defend the $8,150 level to generate enough momentum to retest the rising 200 DMA which will be critical in the next couple of weeks. Another retest of the 200 DMA would imply that it could be weakening as a point of resistance so this would be an interesting development.

Bullish case 

The 200 DMA is rising rapidly and continues to be an area which the bulls want to test. The chart shows that a higher high and a higher low were put in last week which is also a bullish sign. Another test of the rapidly rising 200 DMA could be in store should the bulls maintain the $8,150 level. 

The VPVR illustrates that there is not a lot of volume in the $9,000 range so a push to this level could result in a similarly fast move to that which was seen on the way down and is somewhat reminiscent of the volume void above $4,000 earlier in the year. 

Bitcoin’s On Balance Volume indicator (OBV) on the 4 hour chart continues to show that the cumulative buying volume is outweighing that of the selling volume within this consolidation period. This is atypical of an accumulation period.

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

This idea is somewhat supported by data from Glassnode and the findings shows a large increase in the number of Bitcoin wallets holding 1000 BTC or more.

 Bitcoin Addresses Holding > 1000 BTC. Source: Glassnode.com” src=”https://s3.cointelegraph.com/storage/uploads/view/d7a9a145009ced076c21bafd76ad0fce.png” title=”Bitcoin Addresses Holding > 1000 BTC. Source: Glassnode.com”></p>
<p dir=Bitcoin Addresses Holding > 1000 BTC. Source: Glassnode.com

The data interestingly shows that since Q4 2018, there have been significant increases in this metric which were unseen in the 2017 bull market. This implies that high net worth individuals and possibly institutions are accumulating rather than retail speculators.

Furthermore, there was largely sideways action in this metric once Bitcoin hit $9,000 on the way up during 2019 with some small profit taking visibly took place. It should be noted that since the breakdown from $10,000, there has been around a 10% increase in the number of wallets with large volume holdings.

The majority of these coins were accumulated with a lower average cost than current prices, likely holding an average somewhere in the $5,000 range. Therefore, it seems unlikely that they will be on the brink of capitulation anytime soon and are taking this price decline as an opportunity to acquire more market exposure 

This is a positive sign for the bulls given that there has been no obvious accumulation spike since the one which preceded the break from $4,000 to 5,000, meaning that there is interest again from big players. On the flip side, the accumulation began in Q4 2018, following a significant sell off to the low $3,000s.

The conclusion here is that there is buying interest again in this range, but it does not mean that it will prop up Bitcoin’s price. Any further liquidity offered by another decline Is likely to be met with similar buying interest.

Bearish scenario

Despite the accumulation narrative being strong, it bears little impact on the impending issue in the market, which is the convergence of the 50 and 200 DMA which are on track to meet by the final week of October. The 50 DMA is also tracking the diagonal resistance which has now held Bitcoin down for several months. 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView 

Failure to break through this convergence of resistance would see calls for this move to be bear flag or ascending wedge and this would open the door to the $6,000 level. A failure to respond here would then open the door to retesting the 200 DMA and any trading below this point might induce calls for a prolonged bear market.

Looking forward

Overall, there are signs that buyers are looking for opportunities with big players becoming very interested in the retracement from the 2019 high. Maintaining price above $8,000 and another retest of the quickly rising 200 DMA is the main task for the bulls. 

Currently, the bears are looking to take advantage of any signs of weakness if prices dip below $8,000. There is around 2 weeks remaining at the most before this market makes a definitive move for Q4 2019.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Bitcoin Price: Sudden Sunday Drop Has Analysts Eyeing $7.8K Support

Bitcoin Price: Sudden Sunday Drop Has Analysts Eyeing $7.8K Support

A test of resilience for Bitcoin price now revolves around an area with $7,400 as its bottom, one market analyst suggests.

Bitcoin price (BTC) returned to sideways trading on Oct. 14 after a sudden dip on Sunday evening saw markets lose 2% in minutes.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin claws back lost ground

Data from Coin360 showed the largest cryptocurrency fluctuating around $8,300 at press time, having made up some of the ground lost during the downturn.

BTC/USD spent much of the weekend grinding upwards, reaching local highs of $8,460 before dramatically reversing to bottom out at $8,200 minutes later.

Since then, a slow recovery has been underway, paring 50% of the losses.

Bitcoin seven-day price chart

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

The behavior mimics multiples occasions in recent weeks and months, during which Bitcoin punctuated periods of flat activity with sudden volatility either up or down. 

Various theories blamed traders and institutional investor settlements for the erratic behavior. This time, analysts told Cointelegraph, it was likely combined selloffs by significant bagholders, which triggered the momentary market slump.

For regular Cointelegraph contributor filbfilb, the short-term performance of Bitcoin revolves around whether support above $7,800 holds. The weekend uptick fizzled when it encountered Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average.

“If this thing really is bullish I don’t really want us to lose the lows on this wick from last night,” he told subscribers of his dedicated Telegram trading channel about Sunday’s dip.

Fellow contributor Michaël van der Poppe held similar feelings. For him, an area near $7,400 remained crucial.

“Overall not the worst,” he summarized on Twitter.

Altcoins see a glimpse of promise

For altcoin investors, the picture was one of rare contrast to Bitcoin, with many assets making modest gains overnight. 

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, began the week up 0.8% to just over $183. 

Ether seven-day price chart

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Others put in a stronger performance, with XRP up 4.3% to $0.29, and Binance Coin (BNB) gaining 3% to pass $18 per token. 

By contrast, Bitcoin SV (BSV) fell 3.5% to $86 over the same period. 

The overall cryptocurrency market cap was $226.1 billion at press time, with Bitcoin’s share at 66.4%.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Litecoin Turns 8 — Charlie Lee Says Foundation Not Near Bankruptcy

Litecoin Turns 8 — Charlie Lee Says Foundation Not Near Bankruptcy

As Litecoin celebrated its eighth birthday on Oct. 13, its founder Charlie Lee fended off criticism about LTC and the Foundation’s finances.

As Litecoin (LTC) celebrated its eighth birthday on Oct. 13, its founder Charlie Lee had to fend off crypto Twitter’s FUD — fear, uncertainty and doubt — about the altcoin.

Lee’s original post was the exuberant announcement that:

“Litecoin network has been up and running continuously for the past 8 years with zero downtime. And in that span of time, over $500,000,000,000 worth of LTC have been transacted. Looking forward to the next 8 years and more! ”

“We have enough money to last 2 years”

The first response to the birthday post immediately raised the specter of bankruptcy allegations, to which Lee robustly retorted:

“It’s [the Litecoin Foundation] not near bankruptcy. Don’t listen to stupid fud and lies. We have enough money to last 2 years.”

The allegations were sparked by a TrustNodes report last week that claimed the Foundation was down from $1 million in income in 2018 down to negative $70,000 by 2019.

At the time, Lee had responded to the report with a statement that the Foundation had an estimated 1 to 2 years’ runway — with around $200,000 in its coffers. 

He added that the company’s financial prospects would also be guided by the outcome of the forthcoming Litecoin Summit, to be held at the end of October in Las Vegas.

Speakers will include high-profile industry figures such as Morgan Creek Digital Assets founder and podcast host Anthony Pompliano, Wyoming Blockchain Task Force president Caitlin Long, and the co-founder and former CEO of BTCC exchange Bobby Lee, among others.

Bitter accusations amid the birthday cheer

With Litecoin trading at roughly $57 as of press time, the altcoin is down almost 60% from its 2019 highs this June — reflecting the wider cooling of the crypto markets.

Lee himself had famously sold and donated all his LTC holdings back in Dec. 2017 — at the peak of the crypto markets’ historic bull run: a decision he explained as motivated by a desire to avoid any conflict of interest and a step toward the thorough decentralization of the network.

While some crypto Twitterers’ appeared bitter about Lee’s move to sell at peak prices, others defended Lee, pointing to the founder’s role in warning others against overheated trading as he anticipated a “multi-year bear market” would set in following Dec. 2017.

Can Crypto Exchanges Ever Be Truly Decentralized?

Can Crypto Exchanges Ever Be Truly Decentralized?

Can a DEX be fully exempt from regulations in the current landscape, and what does it take to be free in the world of crypto?

Earlier this week, British-American entrepreneur John McAfee, who is currently living “in exile” due to tax-related charges filed against him by the United States authorities, launched his own decentralized exchange (DEX). 

The expressive crypto advocate’s McAfeedex.com is running on the Ethereum (ETH) blockchain, and, in McAfee’s own words, it is a “Wild Wild West exchange” that purportedly cannot be seized by regulators. “There is nothing to shut down,” he wrote on Twitter, “Our technology is the smart contracts forever residing on the blockchain.” 

According to the businessman, the DEX, currently in beta, is open source and imposes no Know Your Customer (KYC) or Anti-Money Laundering (AML) requirements on its customers. 

But can a crypto trading platform be fully exempt from regulations in the current, post-ICO environment, where authorities are actively prosecuting bad actors and discussing the possibility of digital assets in Congress? 

In the new Crypto Myths series, Cointelegraph will attempt to debunk various assumptions circling around the crypto space.

What’s a DEX?

In the most basic sense, there are two kinds of cryptocurrency exchanges: centralized and decentralized. The former are much more popular, as they seem to account for more than 99% of the global cryptocurrency trade volume. As a testament to this fact, the largest and most well-known trading platforms — Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, Bittrex, etc. — are all centralized. 

They act as middle men, connecting people willing to trade cryptocurrencies while holding their assets on company-owned wallets. As a result, once a trader deposits their coins onto a centralized exchange, he or she essentially hands over control of their private keys, trusting the platform with the safety of their assets. 

This practice goes against the decentralized agenda prominent in the cryptocurrency space, namely the catchy, “Not your keys, not your Bitcoins” proverb. Last year, Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, went as far as to say that centralized exchanges should “burn in hell.”

Related: DEX, Explained

DEXs, therefore, are built in such a way that allows users to retain ownership of their cryptocurrencies and private keys. Specifically, they are peer-to-peer (P2P) services that allow direct transactions between two interested parties directly on the blockchain. Moreover, given that DEXs use smart contracts to facilitate trade, they require far less supervision compared to centralized platforms.

While some people still find it easier to trust a third party with their private keys, DEXs have other major benefits over centralized exchanges, namely anonymity and security. Indeed, decentralized platforms are much more difficult to hack, since they rely on smart contracts. This contrasts with the regular breaches experienced by centralized servers, resulting in multi-million losses every year. Additionally, lax KYC requirements are also a plus for the cryptocurrency enthusiasts who value anonymity.  

DEXs are still lagging behind centralized platforms. Why?

DEXs remain a strongly alternative option, as proven by relatively low liquidity rates. There are a number of reasons for that, experts say, like cost and speed of trading. Andrej Cvoro, CEO and founder of R&D blockchain firm Decenter, explained to Cointelegraph, “Centralized exchanges are of course historically older and hence had more time to accumulate both users and liquidity, win users’ trust and tweak the user experience.” According to Cvoro, even some supposed advantages of DEXs come with certain drawbacks, while security is also an issue: 

“DEXes are trustless systems where users keep their funds within their wallets and have them exchanged through smart contracts, but this does involve on-chain interactions, which then includes waiting for transactions to be mined and paying required fees for them. DEXes also expose all orders and the accounts making them, which some users want to avoid. Finally, DEXes could also have security issues and have known to struggle with issues such as front-running”

User experience and institutional involvement are other factors that should be taken into consideration, according to John Todaro, director of research at TradeBlock, a provider of institutional trading tools for digital currencies. The analyst told Cointelegraph that centralized exchanges, by nature, would have more institutions and market makers using them, adding that:

“Given institutions typically operate within a specific regulatory sandbox, they are more comfortable trading through centralized exchanges than DEXs. Further, the majority of retail flows are concentrated on centralized exchanges. Using a DEX requires a deeper understanding of wallets and exchange order books than using a centralized exchange such as Coinbase which can be accessed via a smartphone app, and thus has limited the customer pool for DEXs.”

Decentralization as a spectrum

Another crucial problem for DEXs lies within their name, as there is no clear definition that would fully explain what this kind of trading platform should entail. As the phenomenon became more popular last year, many well-known cryptocurrency exchanges like Binance and Huobi decided to use their brand to launch their own decentralized marketplaces while applying the same compliance principles. In fact, the majority of DEXs now follow regulatory standards like KYC and AML in much the same way as centralized platforms, Todaro said:

“Many DEXs have KYC/AML procedures in place and decide which tokens are added to their platforms. Regulators have shown in the past that DEXs are subject to existing exchange requirements, and if DEXs do not comply, DEX creators are subject to fines and other repercussions.”

Some experts are even reluctant to call those exchanges decentralized. “Today, most exchanges which call themselves decentralized​ exchanges are actually only non-custodial exchanges,” said Eyal Shani, a blockchain researcher at consulting firm Aykesubir. He elaborated:

“They do not own your digital assets, but the exchange operator is still much in control of everything regarding the platform. Any exchange that relies on a traditional web front to facilitate the order book, runs normal KYC/AML processes are not completely decentralized. But that’s a matter of definition.”

In Shani’s view, a ​true​ decentralized exchange would be the one that facilitates fee-free transactions between people without the need for KYC or AML, he noted:

“However, running such an operation is usually costly, and those who engage in that kind of business usually wishes to make a profit out of it. And this is where the law kicks in and dictates that if one is making profit out of the operation, he is de facto in charge of it, and requires that entity to run KYC/AML among other requirements”

Thus, to avoid potential confusion, decentralization should be seen as “a spectrum, rather than a binary, black and white classification,” Cvoro suggested, providing some specific examples:

“On one end, there are the least decentralized options, such as Binance DEX, that require KYC, have limited availability depending on the user’s country of residence and rely on centralized, server-based order matching, among other things. And on the other end there’s, for example, Uniswap that has no KYC whatsoever, has unlimited global availability and does everything on-chain without any accounts with admin privileges of any sort.”

So what about McAfee’s DEX, boldly marketed as an independent platform and backed by someone who is himself hiding from authorities in international waters? Shani said in an email to Cointelegraph, “To the best of my understanding, McAfee’s DEX does profit from running the operation, so I recommend him to ask the creator of EtherDelta what the SEC thinks of those kind of exchanges.” 

Shani was referring to when U.S. authorities charged Zachary Coburn, the founder of decentralized crypto token trading platform EtherDelta, with operating an unregistered securities exchange. 

Related: McAfee on BTC, Exile & the US: ‘No Way the Current System Can Survive’

Coburn neither admitted nor denied the allegations, but consented to pay the state over $300,000 in unlawful profits, along with other penalties. Although, McAfee is well-aware of the concerns of the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) — at least according to his Twitter, where he wrote

“SEC says as long as we follow AML and KYC procedures the http://McAfeedex.com exchange is OK. But we don’t follow either and why should we even if we could? We are just a window into the blockchain where people trade. This is for the people, not the Government. F*ck them.”

Thus, even though the McAfee DEX “does stand out as one of the more decentralized exchanges out there” due to having a decentralized listing process and self-custody on top of requiring no personal information for KYC and AML procedures, “there are still likely central points of failure on the back-end that regulators could target,” says Todaro. 

Myth busted?

Theoretically, it is possible to run a fully decentralized exchange, Shani told Cointelegraph. However, it would certainly involve much less profit for the owners, especially considering the current trading volumes that DEXs are demonstrating. Shani added: 

“There is a way to run a ​truly​ decentralized DEX. But it could potentially be so expensive that it would scare away the small traders. For that to happen, in addition to having no KYC/AML, running the orderbook and saving ​all​ data on replicating systems. But even then the government could block those services, fine whoever is involved etc.. So we would need a decentralized DNS servers, decentralized ISPs and many more services which are great solutions. Yet, based on the current volume on the so called DEXes, it seems like a solution looking for a problem, rather than a true product-market fit.”

Indeed, based on the current trading history displayed on the McAfee DEX, it seems that the service has yet to experience a massive influx of traders. Todaro explained that generally, cryptocurrency traders tend to value other features besides anonymity and decentralization:

“There is a demand for fully decentralized exchanges, but I would expect the vast majority of traders and exchange users to prioritize liquidity, token availability (i.e. access to more tokens than just ERC-20s), and ease of use over a platform that ‘no one can block.’”

Therefore, it is still unclear whether the market is ready for a fully decentralized exchange, even if there is one. Given that the top-three trading platforms are calculating their each and every step (namely in the U.S. market) to avoid facing large fines from regulators, it would seem unlikely that a “true” DEX could perform that well in the current landscape — in terms of profit, at least.

Crypto Markets Trade Sideways After SEC Rejects TON

Crypto Markets Trade Sideways After SEC Rejects TON

The majority of the top-20 coins by market cap see losses today, while Bitcoin price failed to hold $8,400.

Saturday, Oct. 12 — following a minor price rally earlier this week, crypto markets are trading sideways as the top-20 coins by market cap report mixed signals.

At press time, 8 out of the top 20 cryptocurrencies are seeing gains, with Binance Coin (BNB) surging nearly 2.8%. Chainlink (LINK) is seeing the biggest losses among the top 20, down more than 6.1%.

Market visualization

Market visualization. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin hovers around $8,300 level

After hitting $8,800 on Oct. 11, Bitcoin (BTC) has been hovering around $8,300 threshold for the most part of the day. At press time, the biggest cryptocurrency by market cap is trading at $8,329, down around 0.3% over the past 24 hours at press time. Over a seven-day period, Bitcoin is up by around 2.8%. Bitcoin’s market share rate has been stable over the day, accounting for 66.9%.

While some Bitcoin bulls are predicting that the upcoming Bitcoin’s block reward halving in May 2020 will lead the major cryptocurrency to break the all-time highs, the CEO at Chinese mining giant Bitmain recently claimed that the halving may not lead to a bull market.

On Oct. 8, American asset manager VanEck published research providing a number of reasons why Bitcoin improves an investment portfolio upside, emphasizing the coin’s monetary value, scarcity and independence from traditional markets.

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

Ether (ETH), the second cryptocurrency by market cap, is down 0.6% over the day to trade at $182 at press time. The top altcoin is seeing significant growth this week, up more than 4% over the past seven days at press time.

Earlier this week, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin declared that after the Ethereum blockchain adopts its proof-of-stake consensus algorithm, it will be more secure and expensive to attack than Bitcoin.

Ether seven-day price chart

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Ripple (XRP), the third top cryptocurrency by market cap, is up around 0.2% and trading at $0.272. Over a seven-day period, the coin is up by more than 7%.

Ripple seven-day price chart

Ripple seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Total market capitalization amounts to $224 billion at press time, seeing no change over the past 24 hours at press time. Over the past 7 days, total market cap grew by $8 billion, according to CoinMarketCap.

U.S. regulators reject Grams and Bitwise ETF

The markets are reporting mixed signals after major American regulators rejected two significant crypto-related initiatives earlier this week. On Oct. 11, the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed an emergency action and restraining order against Telegram and the Telegram Open Network (TON), claiming that the firm’s $1.7 billion Gram (GRM) token sale in 2018 was illegal.

On Oct. 9, the SEC rejected a proposal to list a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by Bitwise Asset Management and NYSE Arca, claiming that the ETF filing did not comply with the necessary requirements.

Meanwhile, another major U.S. regulator, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) expressed confidence that Ether is a commodity and that ETH futures trading is becoming a reality. On Oct. 10, CFTC chairman Heath Tarbert confirmed the authorities believe that Bitcoin is a commodity, adding that forked cryptocurrencies should be treated similarly.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin Price Diary: How REN/BTC Double Bottom Made Me 49% Profit

Bitcoin Price Diary: How REN/BTC Double Bottom Made Me 49% Profit

In the third installment of the Bitcoin Price Diary, veteran trader Scott Melker revisits some recent successful trades including a sizable position on REN/BTC.

In this third installment of my Bitcoin Price Diary, I’ll revisit some open positions which are still in play and review a sizable trade on REN. I also have a position in Bitcoin (BTC) that is still largely open. 

As I have said a number of times on Twitter, I believe that it has been an altcoin season for months and that altcoins found their local bottoms in August. I have been comfortably trading them since. In early October, Bitcoin dropped and was ranging sideways, giving altcoins even more room to appreciate. 

At the time of writing, Bitcoin price is a few days removed from a sizable 6.6% move up, which caused a drop across the board on many altcoins. I am proceeding with caution on altcoins for the moment until Bitcoin has provided clearer direction for its next move. 

I prefer to keep my active trades at a minimum because it helps me manage my risk. Opening multiple altcoin positions at the same time rarely works for me as they move in tandem based on Bitcoin price moves. 

This is why I assign a 1% risk for multiple positions as failing to do this can lead to sizable loss across the board. I prefer to identify the 1 or 2 setups I like the best and allocate more funds to heavier positions. In this case, I deployed the bulk of my trading capital into a REN position, which worked out beautifully.

Let’s take a look at some charts to see how the process worked out. 

REN/BTC: Setting up the trade

Entries: .00000512 (sats), .00000601 (sats)

Targets: The target of the initial breakout, for me, is a trip to the all-time high. This is ambitious, but my first target for a small portion of the trade was set at .00001396 (sats). This would be a 170% gain.

At the time of entry, I was watching for a potential double bottom (confirmed with a break of .00000601), with a target around .00000840. This would be a 64% gain from the first entry and a 40% gain from the second entry. 

Stop loss: In case the trade goes belly up I’ve placed a stop loss at .00000476 (sats), which equates to a 7% loss on the trade. 

Calculating the risk-reward ratio

It’s also good practice to consider the risk to reward ratio when making an investment, especially with altcoins given Bitcoin’s current dominance rate. 

The risk to reward ratio measures the difference between a trade’s entry point all the way to the stop-loss and sell or take-profit order. 

Comparing these two provides the ratio of profit to loss, or reward to risk. For this trade, it is roughly 26 (!!!)  at the first target and 9.6 at the second target.

General analysis

REN has been in a clear and sustained downtrend since hitting its all-time high in July. I caught most of the move up and was able to profit, exiting near the top. I had very little interest in trading it again, and consistently posted on twitter why I viewed more downside as likely.

As previously mentioned on twitter I believe the down move began with a head and shoulders and daily bear div

Price ultimately fell well below this area into the .00000360 zone.REN/BTC 4-hour chart

Price ultimately fell well below this area into the .00000360 zone.REN/BTC 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

I clearly targeted the low 0.000005 area, as can be seen by my consistent posting about the green weekly demand zone on my old charts.

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

Entry ideas

The white descending line on the daily chart was my main area of interest for an entry. I viewed this as a clear break of the sustained downtrend. REN/BTC price broke through this line on Oct. 5, where I entered my first trade on the breakout at .00000512 sats. 

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

Previously, REN price bounced out of a strong demand area (seen on the chart below) on the daily chart, formed above the all-time low of .00000309 on Binance

The move up from there caught my attention, and would be viewed as a potential entry for traders with a higher risk profile. I was still not interested in trading the coin without confirmation of a reversal to the upside — a break of the descending line. 

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

Price also formed a potential double bottom at .00000388 sats, which gave me another area of interest for an entry. 

A double bottom is confirmed when the neckline (the highest swing point between the two bottoms) is broken. I love trading a retest of this line, so I added to my position at .00000601 sats. 

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

How it worked out

I exited early on 75% of the position at .00000764 sats, for a profit of 49% on the first entry and 27% on the second entry. 

Why did I exit early? There are a few reasons. 

Bitcoin made a sizable move to the upside, causing a drop in most altcoins. I believe there is more upside eventually in store for Bitcoin, so this could cause further price depreciation in REN/BTC. 

More importantly, I identified a clear bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart, with RSI overbought. A majority of the time, this signals a local top, if not an end to the entire move up. 

REN/BTC daily chart

REN/BTC daily chart. Source: TradingView

I have moved up the stop loss on the rest of my position to just below the pink line at .00000684 sats. There is a potential hidden bullish divergence forming, which would be invalidated at that point. Further, that line is a clear area of support that bulls would like to see hold. 

REN/BTC 4 hour chart

REN/BTC 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/USD

I took a swing position in Bitcoin, i.e. BTC/USD (XBT/USD) on Sept. 26 at $7,914, re-entering the market with a large chunk of the fiat that I had on the sideline. The premise for the trade was that I saw a nice 4-hour candle with a large wick down, which made a clear descending channel. 

This candle was shaping up to be a nice reversal. Combined with the descending channel and the significant bullish divergence with the RSI, I was confident that price would rise. The RSI was historically low on the first drop, hitting 4.38. A bounce was somewhat inevitable. 

XBT/USD 4 hour chart

XBT/USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin price made a move above the equilibrium (dashed centerline) of that channel, and broke out, bullishly retesting resistance as support. 

XBT/USD 4 hour chart

XBT/USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

Although price dropped once more, I did not exit the trade, because I saw another bullish divergence with RSI forming on the daily chart. 

BTC/USD daily chart

BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

This led to the large move up from around $7,700 to over $8,500. I exited 50% of the trade at $8,625, and am still holding the remainder of the position as price confirmed a triple bottom on the 4-hour chart when it broke $8,535 — the swing high between the three bottoms. It successfully retested this area, so further price appreciation is likely. I will keep you updated!

BTC/USD 4 hour chart

BTC/USD 4 hour chart. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the (@scottmelker) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.

Bitcoin Price Rejected at Key Level Near $9,000

Bitcoin Price Rejected at Key Level Near $9,000

Bitcoin rallied past $8,800 before a strong rejection drove BTC price back below the 200-day moving average. Bulls need to step in and restore momentum or a break below $8,000 is possible.

Over the past five days, Bitcoin (BTC) has rallied more than $1,000, from $7,770 to $8,835, giving the crypto space hope of further upside.

Bitcoin’s Oct. 11 daily candle, however, faced rejection near a few key levels, showing that crypto’s largest asset is still struggling to hit the $9,000 mark. 

Daily crypto market data. Source: Coin360

Daily crypto market data. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin rejected at key level

Since its $1,700 drop on Sept. 24, Bitcoin largely has struggled to maintain its 200-day moving average (MA) as support, suffering clear rejection multiple times. The 200-day MA is commonly used as a notable benchmark regarding bullish and bearish trends for Bitcoin. 

The digital asset punched through the 200-day MA earlier today, only to fall more than $400 in the hours that followed. Closing today’s candle back above the 200-day MA, currently at $8,655, would be a bullish sign for the Bitcoin. At press time, Bitcoin trades in the mid $8,300s.

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin was also unable to reach its previous zone of support which it held during the summer months of consolidation. Ranging from $9,000 to $9,500, this zone is now likely to act as resistance. 

Additionally, Bitcoin’s Ichimoku Cloud is red above the price, and the Kijun (red line) is above the Tenkan (blue line), all sitting as possible future levels of resistance.

Bitcoin’s price hit an interesting level on the 4-hour chart

Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart is a mixed bag of signals but primarily looks to have hit a pool of supply or liquidity, followed by a swift fall in price. 

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

At times, traders may see Bitcoin’s price hit a point slightly above a previous high or below a previous low before turning around and running in the opposite direction. 

As noted on the chart, Bitcoin saw this type of price reaction on Sept. 29 when it tapped just below a previous local low of $7,738 before buyers flooded in, spiking the price in the opposite direction. 

Bitcoin hosted a similar price event during today’s candle when it broke slightly above a 4-hour wick high from Sept. 24 sitting at $8,806. 

Currently, Bitcoin price sits on the Kijun level, holding it as support for the time being. It should be noted that 4-hour Ichimoku Cloud levels generally are stronger on higher time frames, such as daily or weekly time frame charts. Additionally, the Tenkan crossed over the Kijun in a bullish TK cross yesterday.

Bearish scenario

Bitcoin’s stark rejection from $8,820 does not appear to be ideal for bullish days ahead. The asset also was not quite able to reach the level from which it originally broke down. A stronger market might have seen bitcoin test that mark before facing such rejection. 

Additionally, Bitcoin failing to close today’s candle above the 200-day MA at $8,655 would be bearish, indicating another failed attempt to hold that significant level. Another close below the 200-day MA might signal future downside action.

Bullish scenario

At the moment, Bitcoin is fairly stable on the 4-hour chart but buyers need to step in after such a strong rejection and swift drop in price. Bitcoin price sits on a couple of levels of support, such as the 4-hour Kijun and the top of a price move made on Oct. 7. 

Bitcoin also appears to be in the middle of a small uptrend, looking toward another possible move higher. Its current correction, as part of the trend, is not quite low enough to indicate a break in the lower time frame market structure. 

If Bitcoin can close today’s candle above the 200-day MA, the event may serve as fuel for further upside and support. 

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of (@benjaminpirus) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Top Coins Continue to Decline, Bitcoin Drops to $8,300 Threshold

Top Coins Continue to Decline, Bitcoin Drops to $8,300 Threshold

Major cryptocurrency markets have seen a sharp drop today, with total market capitalization around $224 billion.

Friday, Oct. 11 — Major cryptocurrency markets have continued sliding over the day, with only three coins in the top-20 list reporting gains.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

The top cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $8,355, having lost 2% on the day at press time. The majority of the decline took place over a period of just 1 hour earlier today, when the coin slumped from $8,734 to $8,404.

Bitcoin’s recent price fluctuations are highly thought-provoking, leaving industry stakeholders much to speculate on. Metrics and predictive indices project Indexica suggested that Bitcoin’s fall is explained by a growing cryptocurrency ecosystem rather than by the coin itself. Zak Selbert, CEO at Indexica, argued:

“Now that Bitcoin is a big kid, anything can make it move, just like anything can make gold or a G-10 currency move. Bitcoin is part of the financial landscape in a very intertwined and mature way.”

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360​​​​​​​

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

The second-largest coin by market cap, Ether (ETH), is also suffering a slump. After losing 4.66% in 24 hours to press time, the coin is trading at around $181.86. Ether’s weekly and monthly gains remain in positive territory, at about 3.91% and 0.83% respectively.

Ether 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360​​​​​​​

Ether 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

XRP has dropped by 1.35% on the day and is trading at around $0.269 at press time. Earlier today, the coin saw an upswing to $0.275, after which it has been reporting a gradual decline over the course of the day.

Earlier today, alluding to the spate of controversies that had beset the project, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse argued that Ripple’s “transparency has opened us up to attack.” Garlinghouse said there is a “bunch of misinformation” out there, but claimed that this is in part because Ripple is “ten or a hundred times more transparent than anyone in the crypto community.”

XRP 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360​​​​​​​

XRP 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

Chainlink (LINK) and Algorand (ALGO) are reporting sufficient gains over the past 24 hours, by 8.69% and 5.08% respectively. The third winner on the top-20 list is Cosmos (ATOM), which is struggling to remain in the green, having gained modest 0.88% to press time.

Total market capitalization of all digital currencies is around $224,8 billion at press time.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Bitcoin Price Hits $8.8K Only to Crash in a ‘Logistical Move’ — Analyst

Bitcoin Price Hits $8.8K Only to Crash in a ‘Logistical Move’ — Analyst

An attempt to break sideways trading pattern failed to gain momentum, taking Bitcoin price 2% lower and disappointing traders.

Bitcoin price (BTC) traded broadly lower on Oct. 11 after sudden volatility broke a sideways trend in place since earlier in the week. 

Cryptocurrency market daily overview

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin analyst prepares for range-bound trading

Data from Coin360 showed BTC/USD circling $8,350 on Friday, having jumped to a local high of above $8,770 earlier. 

The enthusiasm was short-lived, with the following crash taking the pair below its previous levels. Daily losses for Bitcoin totaled 2.3% at press time, while the largest cryptocurrency remained up 2.6% versus the same point last week. 

Bitcoin seven-day price chart

Bitcoin seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

Markets broadly shook off events which commentators assumed would impact them.  Specifically, the decision by U.S. regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission to reject the latest Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) failed to dent sentiment.

Previous ETF denials had piled downward pressure on Bitcoin, suggesting markets this time had already price in a negative decision. Another major ETF offering was withdrawn by its sponsors in September, hinting at a lack of confidence in the instrument winning approval. 

For the short-term future, however, analysts assumed it would be business as usual for Bitcoin. Regulator Cointelegraph contributor and market analyst Michaël van de Poppe eyed a narrower trading corridor centered on $8,300.

“Continue the ranging for now,” he summarized in a fresh update on Friday morning. 

Van de Poppe said that $8,300, as the monthly opening price, would form support, while resistance closer to $8,500 remained “significant.”

For fellow contributor crypto trader Scott Melker, the recent activity was calculated by large bagholders. He told Cointelegraph:

“I don’t think whales stopped hunting. I just think they started hunting for liquidity to sell and short, and the $8800 area was a predictable area to do so. Pushing price up to engineer liquidity was a logistical move.” 

Altcoins shed 3% amid mixed sentiment

For altcoins, a day of underwhelming returns for Bitcoin translated into similarly lackluster performance. Trending in line with BTC, the major of the top twenty cryptocurrencies posted daily losses of 2-3%.

Ether (ETH), the largest altcoin by market cap, fell 1.7% to $186, better than most, while Binance Coin (BNB) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) lost closer to 3%. XRP also bucked the trend, staying stable at 0.7% lower.

Ether seven-day price chart

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

The overall cryptocurrency market cap was $226 billion at press time, with Bitcoin’s share slightly down at 66.8%.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here

Thailand’s First Regulated ICO Portal Targets $98M Token Offering

Thailand’s First Regulated ICO Portal Targets $98M Token Offering

SE Digital, a subsidiary of major financial services firm Seamico Securities, has been confirmed as the first ICO portal operator to be approved by the Thai SEC.

SE Digital, a subsidiary of major financial services firm Seamico Securities, has been confirmed as the first initial coin offering (ICO) portal operator to be approved by Thailand’s securities regulator.

According to an Oct. 11 report from The Bangkok Post, SE Digital plans to launch Thailand’s first investment token, with a target transaction size of 2-3 billion baht or roughly $65,800,000-$98,700,000.

Moreover, Seamico Securities’ strategic investor, Elevated Returns, has reportedly applied to the Thai Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a Digital Assets Exchange License to launch a new trading venue that would provide a secondary market for such tokens by 2020.

A new chapter in Thailand’s capital market history

SE Digital plans to provide an extensive set of services for ICOs, including strategic advisory, primary issuance as well as support for secondary market access, from compliance to investor communications. 

The portal will vet prospective token issuers before they seek approval from the SEC and assist them in meeting requirements such as Know-Your-Customer, CDD, Anti-Money-Laundering and investor suitability. It will also conduct due diligence on the proposed tokens before allowing them to reach investors.

Authorized token investors in Thailand are set to include retail and institutional, high net worth persons, venture capital and private equity funds.

Stephen Ng, Chief Marketing Officer of SE Digital, told the Post that the SEC’s approval was poised to open a new chapter in Thailand’s capital market history and pave the way to its digital economic transformation, as it becomes one of the first ASEAN nations to offer fully-compliant ICOs. He continued to outline that:

“SE Digital will be able to promote the tokenisation of traditional assets providing investors with access to previously illiquid and difficult to access assets such as commercial real estate and investment products with global exposure, while offering issuers with a new fundraising alternative that allows access to a wider pool of capital providers with cost savings accrued from the digitisation on the blockchain.” 

An evolving stance

As previously reported, news of the SEC’s plans to authorize an ICO portal in the country first surfaced in November 2018, with further details emerging in March.

In December 2018, the Thai SEC  had announced its intention to consider loosening rules that form a barrier to ICOs, although suggested there would be caps on participation. 

Top-20 Coins Experience Downward Trend, BTC Sticks Near $8,600

Top-20 Coins Experience Downward Trend, BTC Sticks Near $8,600

Crypto markets are mostly in the red, remaining relatively quiet with moderate losses throughout the top-20 coins.

Thursday, Oct. 10 — Following an impressive rally yesterday, major crypto markets have slowed to trade in the red over the past day. Bitcoin (BTC) has stuck to $8,600, while other major coins are experiencing a downward trend.

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

Cryptocurrency market daily overview. Source: Coin360

After jumping from an intraday low of around $8,200 up to nearly $8,600 yesterday, Bitcoin has been hovering around that price mark over the past 24 hours, posting a daily high of $8,677 and low of $8,466. At press time, the leading coin is trading at around $8,576, down 0.34% on the day.

Meanwhile, the trading volume of BTC futures on the Intercontinental Exchange’s Bakkt platform reportedly soared to 224 contracts on Oct. 9 — 796% higher than the previous day, representing an all-time high for the platform.

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

Bitcoin 24-hour price chart. Source: Coin360

Top altcoin Ether (ETH) has lost about 0.18% during the past 24 hours and is trading at around $191.84 at press time. In terms of its weekly performance, the altcoin has remained relatively quiet, with moderate gains and losses.

As he said at a conference earlier in the day, the chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission believes Ether to be a commodity — and that ETH futures trading is becoming a reality.

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360​​​​​​​

Ether seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

XRP has experienced more notable losses over the past day, dropping by more than 3% to trade at around $0.273. The altcoin’s weekly chart is showing its price increasing by a respectable 9.35%, while its monthly gains are 5%.

On Oct. 9, Cointelegraph reported that Ripple Labs, the administrator of blockchain payments network Ripple, came under criticism for allegedly misleading representations that it “discovered” — rather than created — the XRP token.

XRP’s seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

XRP’s seven-day price chart. Source: Coin360

On the top-20 cryptocurrencies list, only Algorand (ALGO) and Tether (USDT) are trading in the green zone, up by 6.88% and 0.2% respectively. The biggest losers on the day among the top-20 coins are Chainlink (LINK) and Ethereum Classic (ETC) with losses of 4.22% and 3.78% respectively.

Earlier today, cryptocurrency exchange OKEx announced the end of Monero (XMR), DASH, Zcash (ZEC), Horizen (ZEN) and Super Bitcoin (SBTC) trading on its platform. OKEx reports having received a request to end the transaction support and review the compliance with the ‘Travel Rules’ according to the Financial Action Task Force recommendations.

Keep track of top crypto markets in real time here